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约翰・邓普顿 22 条投资格言

作者:顺顺 | 发布时间:2026-07-03 11:32:36


For all long-term investors, there is only one objective — maximum total real return after taxes. 

对所有长期投资者而言,目标只有一个:税后最高实际总回报。

 

Achieving a good investment record takes much study and work, and is a lot harder than most people think. 

想要取得出色的投资业绩,需要大量钻研与付出,远比大多数人想象的更难。

 

It is impossible to produce superior performance unless you do something different from the majority. 

不走和大众一样的路,就不可能取得超额收益。

 

The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell. 

市场极度悲观之时,是最佳买入时机;市场极度乐观之时,是最佳卖出时机。

 

To put Maxim 4 in somewhat different terms: In the stock market the only way to get a bargain is to buy what most investors are selling. 

换种说法诠释第四条:股市里想要捡便宜货,只能去买大多数人都在抛售的标的。

 

To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude, even while offering the greatest ultimate reward. 

在众人绝望抛售时买入、在众人贪婪抢购时卖出,需要极强的定力,但也能收获最丰厚的长期回报。

 

Bear markets have always been temporary. Share prices turn upward from one to twelve months before the bottom of the business cycle. 

熊市永远只是阶段性的。股价往往会在经济周期见底前 1 12 个月先行回升。

 

If a particular industry or type of security becomes popular with investors, that popularity will always prove temporary and, when lost, won’t return for many years. 

一旦某个行业或某类资产被投资者热捧,这份热度必然短暂;热度褪去后,往往多年都不会重现。

 

In the long run, stock market indexes fluctuate around the long-term upward trend of earnings per share. 

长期来看,股市指数会围绕每股收益的长期上行趋势上下波动。

 

In free-enterprise nations, the earnings on stock market indexes fluctuate around the replacement book value of the shares of the index. 

在自由市场经济国家,指数成分股的盈利水平会围绕股票重置账面价值波动。

 

If you buy the same securities as other people, you will have the same results as other people. 

如果你和大众买一样的资产,最终收益也只会和大众持平。

 

The time to buy a stock is when the short-term owners have finished their selling, and the time to sell a stock is often when the short-term owners have finished their buying. 

短线交易者抛售殆尽,便是买入股票的时机;短线交易者疯狂买满,往往就是卖出时机。

 

 

Share prices fluctuate more widely than intrinsic values. Therefore, index funds will never produce the best total return performance. 

股价的波动幅度远大于企业内在价值,因此指数基金永远无法创造最优总回报。

 

Too many investors focus on outlook and trend. Therefore, more profit is made by focusing on value. 

太多投资者只盯着前景与趋势,而专注价值才能赚取更多利润。

 

If you search worldwide, you will find more bargains and better bargains than by studying only one nation. Also, you gain the safety of diversification. 

放眼全球寻找机会,远比只局限单一市场更容易发现优质低价标的,同时还能通过分散投资降低风险。

 

The fluctuation of share prices is roughly proportional to the square root of the share price. 

股价的波动幅度,大致与股价平方根成正比。

 

The time to sell an asset is when you have found a much better bargain to replace it. 

卖出一项资产的唯一理由,是你找到了性价比远高于它的替代标的。

 

 

When any method for selecting stocks becomes popular, then switch to unpopular methods. As suggested in Maxim 3, too many investors can spoil any share-selection method or any market-timing formula. 

当某一套选股策略广为流传时,就要转向冷门策略。正如第三条所言,一旦大量投资者跟风,任何选股、择时方法都会失效。

 

Never adopt permanently any type of asset, or any selection method. Try to stay flexible, open-minded, and skeptical. Long-term top results are achieved only by shifting from popular to unpopular securities and selection methods. 

不要永久固守某一类资产或某一套选股方法。保持灵活、包容、审慎的心态。长期顶尖收益,来自不断从热门资产、热门策略转向冷门标的与冷门方法。

 

The skill factor in security selection is largest for the common-stock portion of your investments. 

在各类投资中,普通股的选股操作最考验专业判断能力。

 

The best investment performance is produced by an individual, not a committee. 

顶尖投资业绩往往出自独立决策者,而非决策委员会。

 

If you begin investment analysis with prayer, you can think more clearly and make far fewer stupid mistakes.

以静心祷告开启投资分析,能让思路更清晰,大幅减少低级失误。

 

补充备注

4 条衍生名句:Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria

牛市在绝望中诞生,在怀疑中成长,在乐观中成熟狂热中灭亡

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